If one thinks the mid-term election sweep of the House by the GOP was an example of the Independent voters’ role in predicting the 2012 presidential election, you might be wrong because of the low mid-term Democratic turn out.

However, there is no question that Independents will be the swing vote determining who the next president will be.

Presently the leading GOP candidate, Mitt Romney is in a neck and neck race with President Obama, each hold 38% of the Independent vote, according to polls.

The Independent vote was critical to Obama in 2008.

The current measurement of the Independent vote takes place via polling and those 19 states that allow an ‘open’ primary.

The two leading parties, are, for the most part opposed to ‘open’ primaries because they don’t want ‘outsiders’ voting in their primaries.

However, the Supreme Court says declaring yourself an Independent is equivalent to free speech; but they allowed the decision to an ‘open’ primary to the states.

New Hampshire is one of those states and tonight it is estimated that Mitt Romney, who won the New Hampshire primary with 37% of the vote, split the Independent vote with Huntsman.

Coming in second with 25% of the vote was Ron Paul, Huntsman with 17% and Gingrich and Santorum with 10% of the vote.

Obama carried Independents by an 8 point margin in 2008 exit poll, and in the 2010 mid-terms the Republicans carried Independents by a 19 point margin, according to the Wall Street Journal, but Republicans benefited by a low Democratic turn-out.

One can not expect the same in the presidential election in November.

Mitt Romney, the leading Republican candidate has consistently done the best nationally among Independents.

However, according to the Wall Street Journal, he splits the Independent vote with Obama. (38 to 38 in Dec 22 YouGov poll)  and the pundits don’t believe a tie will be good enough for a GOP win.

Taking into consideration the deadlock between Romney and Obama for the Independent vote, the Obama billion dollar campaign treasure chest, the Romney campaign organization and funding, the winner of GOP primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, the only viable GOP candidate to defeat Obama is Mitt Romney.

And, the sooner the Republican party selects its candidate the better — the focus should be on Obama and his failed presidency, not wannabe GOP candidates that can’t beat Obama.

The key to a GOP win will be focusing on Obama’s failed record, his socialist policies, his big government philosophy, his excessive spending, his entitlement programs, a European mentality of government and capturing the Independent vote.